Tuesday, August 25, 2009

That's Debatable - Chasing Kyle Busch

I realize I have not been able to write much on my own blog lately and am vowing for that to change.  I am working on a few blogging ideas that lend themselves to more consistent posting and that are not solely focused on the Brew Crew (although I will continue to bring you the inside scoop when I can).

As we all know, the world of NASCAR is ripe with controversies, opinions, and heated discussions and I hope to highlight some of them here and get your take on it.

So without further ado, onto this week's THAT'S DEBATABLE! 


WHO: Kyle Busch, aka "The Show", "Thorn", "Rowdy" or "Shrub" and public enemy numero uno to Junior Nation, Brian Vickers Nation (albeit a small, peaceful nation) or pretty much anyone Kyle is racing around.

When the checkered flag flies, you will find Kyle either taking a bow (4 times this year) or confronting a fellow driver and stomping off avoiding the media.   Love him or hate him, with the #18 team there is no in between.

WHAT:  The Chase for the Championship is only two races away and Kyle sits 34 points out of the 12th and final spot in the Chase. 

SO WHAT?  It is possible that Kyle could enter The Chase seeded first (or nearly so) based on his number of wins this season or he could be the first driver with four wins to not make The Chase.

Many fans believe Brian France took away all incentive  for the top teams to race for wins by creating The Chase resulting in a less-than-entertaining sport of points racing.  Clearly, as Kyle's situation demonstrates, it pays to be a top 15 finisher every race rather than going "wreckers or checkers."

I have seen many articles, blogs and tweets already bemoaning the fact we are heading into a part of the season where only a few drivers will actually be racing and the rest will be "playing it safe."   The Chase has become a game of who can avoid problems not who wins the most races.

Now many of you will say, wait Kristen - the Cup Championship used to highly reward consistency not wins, so what's the diff? 

You tell me.

Seems unlikely The Chase is going away and I for one am a fan of going for broke and getting the win.   So how I see it, the only way to get any excitement into The Chase this year is to root against Kyle.  Even better, what if he misses The Chase by a mere point or two, triggering monumental frustration which results in him driving like a drunk hummingbird, taking it four-wide every opportunity and spanking the field as he runs away with win after win.   What if he ends up with more wins than the Champ and racks up more points than anyone else in the last 10 races?  Then what Brian?

So, The Chase for the Championship is neither a chase nor a championship....Discuss

44 comments:

  1. I still think the Chase guys need to be scored seperately over the rest of the field during those final 10 races....I don't have any comments about the old format as I only got into the sport in 2004 so I shall leave that for those were have followed NASCAR prior to then :)

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  2. "...the only way to get any excitement into The Chase this year is to root against Kyle."

    OK.

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  3. Did I detect a little Mike Myers there at the end.

    Nice!

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  4. Kristen, about time you wrote about the good Busch! Just Kidding! You know I like Kurt too.

    In 2003 Kenseth won the Cup with just 1 win, 11 top 5's and 25 top 10's.

    That same year Ryan Newman had 8 wins, 17 top 5's and 22 top 10's. His downfall was 7 DNF's.

    The old points didn't really work that great.

    This year its concievable that the Champion will not be a race winner.

    The new points don't work that great either. I am no math whiz, so I haven't come up with anything, I figured Tez would have a good system, since he is an engineer genius type.

    If Mark Martin and Kyle Busch don't get in the Chase it will be a travesty.

    Come on Nascar, lets think of something better that we have.

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  5. Tez - So if they are scored differently how does that fix the situation that someone just outside the arbitrary Chase cut off could conceivably obtain more points and wins than the eventual Champ b/c the Champ can play it safe and conservative to win it all?

    The current set up just seems to split our season into racing just hard enough to get into the Chase, some harder than others at the end and then racing safe to stay in contention in the Chase.

    Come on engineer-genius type give us the answer! LOL

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  6. Oh RA6AN - you are rooting against "dorkfish" no matter what! =)

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  7. You do indeed aero! Lets see if I can keep it up...I dont think I am that creative.

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  8. Yes, you are correct stork re: 2003 but Ryan at least finished 6th and wasn't locked out of moving up in the standings like Kyle could be.

    Also I cannot think of another year in the old points system where it was so skewed, could have just been an outlier year that NASCAR had a knee jerk reaction because Brian really wanted a playoff format.

    Granted there may not be another year like this one where we have several drivers with multiple wins trying to get in and stay in the top 12.

    If Kyle, Mark (and of course Jr, lets not forget they extended the Chase to 12 just to get him in before) don't make The Chase it will be interesting to see NASCAR's reaction.

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  9. Nice new series you're doing!

    I like the idea of the Chase, but I don't think it places a big enough emphasis on wins. Is ten points per win really that of an edge??? Give fifty points per win and then maybe we wouldn't see as much points racing!

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  10. KRIS,

    GREAT POST, FROM YOU IS THERE ANY OTHER TYPE?

    THE FIRST THING, HOW CAN YOU HAVE A CHAMPION IF HE DOESN'T HAVE ANY WINS. SO TO GET INTO THE CHASE YOU HAVE TO HAVE AT LEAST 1 WIN REGUARDLESS OF POINTS.

    GIVE THE WINNER A BIGGER SPREAD OF POINTS BETWEEN 1st AND THE REST OF THE FIELD. FIRST GETS 500, SECOND GETS 300 THEN REDUCTION FOR EACH PLACE AFTER SECOND, DECREASING TILL YOU GET TO 35th FROM 35th DOWN ALL GET SAME POINTS.

    GUNAQUAT

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  11. Part1,
    Tez, is on to it that the 12 drivers have to have point system all to them, It needs to be a very tight point system
    You have now 195 for win,lap, and most laps to as low as 45 points for last place. My points system is as follows.
    Which ever chase drivers finished highest gets 12 points and 11 for second and the next 10,9,8,7 etc. If any one of them win a race it is 15 points. Lead a lap is 1 point extra and most laps by a chase drive gives them 3 more.

    Bonus of 3 points to win a race and 3 for most laps out of the chase drivers. A chase driver that drives all out will get 18 points. second place could be 12 or 13.

    Keep the win award during the season but instead of 10 points it is 6 points. So right now if Kyle and Mark made it they would be starting with 24 points and Tony & Jimmie 18. You deserve a big head start for working your a&& of during the season that should not be used up on one DFN during the chase.

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  12. Kristen unfortunately there is no easy answer to this dilemma. NASCAR fans and NASCAR have tried for decades to come up with a system that they thought would be the best solution to give the guy with the most wins the championship.

    Racing is a sport of variables that no one has control over. You may have a guy who has 10 wins, but because of the fact that the only time he finishes in the top 5 is to win, he sits out side of the chase. While a guy who may have only one win but finishes in the top 10 almost every week and he could potentially win the championship.

    The only way to ensure that the guy with the most wins, wins the championship is to say, forgot the points. And who every has the most wins at the end of the season, wins the championship.

    But then that is not fair to the guys who run consistently in the top 10 week in and week out.

    So either you reward consistency along with wins, or you throw consistency out the window and reward only wins.

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  13. Now last year we had the driver with the most wins finish 10 in points who had a good lead on the others in the old system. But this is how they started after Richmond. We had 1 driver that had two wins KK, and 2 with one win not make the chase Ryan & McMurray and 6 drivers made the chase without a win.

    1 -- Kyle Busch 5080 Leader-Wins-8-15-17
    2 -- Carl Edwards 5050 -30-Wins-6-11-19
    3 -- Jimmie Johnson 5040 -40-Wins-4-9-14

    They finsih
    1. Jimmie Johnson 6684 Leader-W-7-15-22
    2. Carl Edwards 6615 -69-W-9-19-27
    10. Kyle Busch 6186 -498-W-8-17-21

    Carl Edwards had a better consistency in top 5s and 10 and WINS and lost by 69 points and a driver with more wins then champ finishs 10.

    As far as the cut off line they can only keep it the way it is. The point system for the season should be tighter as well. Maybe I will have alook at last year and do my points up and see if I have a tighter race then NASCAR.

    Cheers2You

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  14. Thanks Gonger. I agree with you, I think winning should be worth more points and I think they should not award points to anyone finishing worst than 30th or something. That might keep people from coming back out on the track in wrecked race cars just to make 3 points up.

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  15. Thanks GUNNY! So you have similar idea which is to make the points spread bigger...contrasted to what F2 recommends in a later comment making the points spread tighter.

    I think the Chase should be top 10 in points plus any race winners. Crazy not to have race winners in there.

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  16. It would be sweet if Kyle AND Martin did not make the Chase, after winning 1/3 of the reg season races. Kyle going off over the last 10 races would be interesting.

    I look for the Chase to be expanded to at least 15 cars, and possibly as many as 20, very soon (like the coming offseason). Can't have the Nation watching NFL football instead of the Chase can we?

    NASCAR needs to reward winning and leading races more with their points system. At least 25 more points for 1st over 2nd. And a tenth of a point for each lap led. 10 laps led = one bonus point. This gives ALL teams the incentive to WIN and LEAD races. This makes races more exciting. This inmproves TV ratings. This increases live attendance.

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  17. Kristen; case in point being 2006 I presume? Tony ended up with 5 wins, same as Jimmie, and scored in those 10 races 1424 points (and 3 wins) to nearly pip Jimmie's 1430 (with just the one win) effort yet Tony finishes 11th since Kahne beat him out to make the Chase at Richmond (I'm ignoring the fact that Kasey led the way with 6 wins since he was never a factor in the Chase).

    I don't think we're going to see the Chase format chucked out any time soon so by having a seperate points system for them just makes sense to me. I'm using the old CART format in my titles as they only scored the top 12 drivers anyway. Maybe NASCAR needs to mandate that any driver who doesn't qualify for the Chase but has won more than one race during the season gets an automatic spot? After all, they do have silly rules for who makes the All-star race so it's not like we'd kick up a big stink about it since we all know that the only consistant thhing in NASCAR is its inconsistancy, LOL!

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  18. Exactly why this is the first subject of "That's Debatable" TSFan! It is a never ending mess with no good answer...LOL!

    As much as I like winning I also agree that its not fair to just throw out consistency and the points and award the championship to whoever has the most wins...tempting as it is.

    I thought Kenseth did amazing job the year he won the Championship - he was so consistently good it was scary. That performance was definitely deserving of the Cup in my opinion.

    My beef is that it seemed like NASCAR just changed the points system in reaction to Kenseth's dominating performance without really thinking this thru very well...and should still be crunching the numbers to make sure the formula for figuring out points/Chase work now that they have actual data to go on.

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  19. I would love to see what you put together if you redo the points F2 but that is a TON of work!

    Tightening the points seems to be an interesting way to go and perhaps not giving any points to anyone outside the top 15, that would get them running up front again. Either this or reward more for the win.

    All I know is that Kyle and Martin should be in the Chase without question, Vickers too with that win.

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  20. Gene - it would be a bit of a farce if neither Mark nor Kyle made the Chase and I *fear* that is exactly what Brian and the powers that be would do - expand the Chase to 20 (the Junior expansion!). Travesty.

    Like I said above - top 8-10 in points + all winners = Chase field if we must keep it.

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  21. Yea, that's a good example Tez.

    I definitely think only giving points for top 10-15 spots would radically change the way they race.

    Are we taking bets on whether the Chase gets tweaked after this year?

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  22. mmm, my main beef with letting any guy who wins a race into the Chase is this; Logano and Keselowski would make it this year under that rule.

    Now, Brad can be chucked out if they say you have to run a full schedule but you can't possibly tell me that Joey, as great as he may one day become, deserves a shot at the title now. Yes he's improved as the year has gone on but the fact is that, despite his win, he's still behind Bowyer, Ambrose and Burton and those guys have not won a race so what does that say about the rest of Joey's season? I'm not trying to be mean or anything but that just doesn't make much sense to me, lol

    as to that bet...it's possible I'd imagine.

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  23. Well I did it but this will be the tease for you all to put who got what.lol

    1. with 150 points - ?
    2. with 148 points - ?
    3. with 104 points
    4. with 91 points

    I had a 3 way tie for 5th so I took wins first and then bonus points second.

    5. with 73 points
    6. with 73 points
    7. with 73 points
    8. with 68 points
    Another tie for 9th, it was bonus points that got it.
    9. with 65 points
    10. with 65 points
    11. with 58 points
    12. with 56 points - ?

    Goodnight all and cheers

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  24. LOL Tez - I know your not being mean!

    I dunno why not give Joey a shot at the Chase? Yes others ahead of him are more experienced but hey he won fair and square. If it is top 10 + wins, well the others just best get their butts in the top 10! LOL

    I see what you are saying but what makes more sense - Joey in along with Kyle and Mark or Kyle and Mark and Joey all out....??

    Its a tough call actually.

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  25. F2 - before I start guessing is this for THIS season??

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  26. What a delima! We got a chase format now that does not award sufficient points for a win thus a consistent top 5 or top 10 finisher can easily get in with maybe one win. That is fine I guess.

    What would happen if the chase format was dropped and the championship was determined by how many wins you had in 36 races? OK. Lets drop that insane idea. Johnson might be too dominant then.

    Lets try this idea. Start giving two million dollars prze money for the winner of a race and graduate it back to 20 th place winning $55,000.00. That would take care of the also rans and stop and park guys. Nope that wouldn't work either. Johnson would be too dominant.

    Well then lets just keep the chase format we now have. Nope that wouldn't work either. Johnson might be too dominant.

    Klvalus where do you come up with these ideas???

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  27. LOL Photo - you make a compelling argument that we have quite a JJ dominance dilemma! So let me get this straight, what you are sayin is that no matter what NASCAR does, JJ wins?

    Could be!

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  28. Prime example of what a joke the Chase is.....

    Juan Montoya is in it with ONE top-5 finish for the ENTIRE season.

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  29. Ah, Gene -- compelling my friend, very compelling.

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  30. I should be biased and say they should use my system....but Kyle's not in my Chase yet even though Mark is and Jr's up a couple spots from where he really is.

    so it's *nearly* perfect for NASCAR! :P

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  31. Klvalus it was last years and here it comes down to the last race Jimmie leading 141 over Carl with 132. Carl won that race and lead a lap and Jimmie came in 6th place and lead a lap giving Jimmie 6 + 1 = 7 points for the race =148. Carl winning it and being in the chase gave him the 15 points instead of 12 points for top chase driver.

    Now that gives Carl 147 points to Jimmie's 148 and if Carl had only lead a lap would be 1 more giving us a tie, that would go to Carl with more wins. Carl lead the most laps that race giving him 3 bonus points giving him the 150 over 148. award those who go all out.

    1. Carl - 150
    2. Jimmie - 148
    3. Kyle - 104
    4. Biffle - 91
    5. Burton - 73 with a win in chase
    6. Gordon - 73 with more bonus points
    7. Harvick - 73
    8. Clint - 68
    9. Kenseth - 65 with more bonus points
    10. Denny - 65
    11. Tony - 58
    12. Dale Jr - 56

    That how it came down in last years and I will say it helps those who did great in the season with wins as Kyle gets a 3rd place and not 10th place. I will do the Matt Kenseth championship seasons later and post it.

    Also I will add that the last 3 races of Matt Kenseth championship the TV rattings took a big drop and more on each race. The network was promissed this great NASCAR that was growing with no end in sight to pay NASCAR big money to air the races. NASSA we have a problem and we need to over react now.
    lol
    Cheers2All

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  32. Tez - yes your system would be perfect for nascar if Kyle was out of the Chase and Junior was in! as it stands now you are right, its only *nearly* perfect.

    LOL!

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  33. Very interesting results indeed there F2!

    Now of course with historical data you can never be absolutely sure that is how it would come out b/c if say JJ is behind in the points he might have made different choices in the final races etc

    BUT! That lineup seems much more accurate to how they performed across the year vs. giving so much weight to the Chase races.

    Do it for this year!! (In all your spare time! LOL)

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  34. Hey Kristen,

    Now that I think about it, I was wondering if you could relink my blog on the group page to say Analytical Afterthoughts instead of Sidekick Sports???

    You are doing a great job coordinating all of this stuff. Thanks!

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  35. Sure Gonger...no problem! Consider it done.

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  36. Got a feeling Kyle is going to roll through Atlanta like General Sherman and take Richmond like U.S. Grant.

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  37. Hey Fireball!! You finally made it over - yipee!

    Yea, I think you are probably right but all it will take is some ill-timed bad luck and the scenario above could happen.

    (send me your email so I can add you as an author on the Lugnuts and Fanaddicts blog so you can post your blogs there -- klvalus@yahoo.com)

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  38. Bile Busch... already hating and rooting against here.

    Relentless debates... nice idea.

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  39. LOL Lori - yet another nickname to add to the list!

    I am not sure if there are enough relentless ones but there seems to be something to debate all the time...the trick is can I still come up with a "coffee talk" ending each time!

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  40. Well, when Junior narrowly missed the Chase a couple years back, Brian got his eraser out, and made a ten, into a twelve in the rule book. Sounds like he needs to make another adjustment. How does 14, 15, 16, 18, or 20 sound?

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  41. hmm, I'm not so sure it was just Jr they did it for, CR....Tony and Jeff have both missed it as well and, we should not forget, Tony's meant he wasn't able to even try to defend his title. I'm sure Tsfan and SB are still spitting chips over that, lol

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  42. Lets hope Brian isn't dumb enough to do that. Although I bet they tweak the Chase somehow just to stay consistently inconsistent.

    I can just hear it now..."why not expand the field, in other sports they have teams playing for bowl games and in the playoffs with a less than 50% winning percentage!"

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  43. David Carvello on NASCAR.com addresses a similar issue here:

    http://www.nascar.com/2009/news/opinion/08/26/inside.line.dcaraviello.chase.flaw/index.html

    His take is to give the regular season winner 50 points so they have a better shot at winning the title - in history of Chase this has only happened 1x.

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  44. Hi Kristen

    Havent been able to check in on all my favs here lately and your are one of them.

    You did a great job on this one .....

    NASCAR did blow it with the Chase In their search for the perfect world they have taken to teeth out of the schedule with cookie tracks, Wilkes and the Rock are gone and no Southern 500 .....oooppps, that is correct, it is not the same.

    Every race on the schedule used to be BIG or, some more so than others but with the chase it is not about a particular race anylonger. I will write a post about Nascars funk.

    Take care, Rick

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Tell me what you think race fans!!